The national conventions have come and gone but the race between Joe Biden and President Donald Trump looks to have remained the same in the latest round of polling.
Several polls have been released over the past few days, showing either a small bump or no bump at all for Mr. Trump. This means Mr. Biden still holds a high-single-digit lead nationally, while leading by a smaller but consistent margin in several swing states.
Here are three takeaways from the latest round of polling:
Trump is still losing big
Wednesday and Thursday saw several new polls get released and all of them showed similar results. Mr. Biden holds a lead above 50 percent nationally and leads by seven to ten points in all polls released.
A USA Today poll shows the Democratic candidate leading 50 percent to 43 percent nationally while he held a 10-point lead in a Quinnipiac poll. Mr. Trump barely won in 2016 by a slim margin and will need to cut into Mr. Biden’s lead over the next 60 days in order to have a chance to make this closer on election day.
Biden still leads in key battleground states — but Trump is right there
There’s good news and bad news for Mr. Biden in the battleground states. A Monmouth University poll shows the former Vice President with 1–3 point lead in Pennsylvania. The FiveThirtyEight’s forecast model shows Mr. Biden with a 4.3 point edge in the critical swing state.
Several other polls show Mr. Biden with a lead in Arizona (4.6 points), North Carolina (1.8 points), and Wisconsin (7.2 points). While the polling data is closer, the news is better for the Biden campaign than the Trump campaign at this point.
Things haven’t changed
The main takeway is things have not changed. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast model shows Mr. Biden with a 72 percent chance of winning the election while Mr. Trump has a 31 percent chance. As of Wednesday night, Mr. Biden’s chances stand at 70 percent chance to win.
The former Vice President led the RealClearPolitics average by 7.7 points on August 17 and by 7.2 points as of this week.
